Drivers predict there will be more electric cars than diesels in the UK by 2030

The general consensus among motorists is that there will be more electric cars on UK roads by 2030 than diesels, a huge poll of drivers has found.

By the time the ban on new petrol and diesel-engined cars comes into force at the end of this decade, drivers reckon there will be 6.5million EVs being used and just 5.5million diesels, according to a poll of 13,000 motorists by the AA.

This would mean that a fifth of UK-registered cars would be battery powered, while just under 17 per cent will be oil-burning diesels.

The research found that drivers expect 19.8 per cent of all cars on the road to be electric by 2030, despite EVs making up just 0.3 per cent of the UK’s car parc in December 2019.

On the other hand, diesel will drop from a 39.1 per cent share of all registered vehicles at the end of 2019 to just 16.8 per cent by turn of the next decade.

Motorists still expect petrol to be the top choice fuel type for Britons, with a predicted 30.2 per cent share in 2030 – down from a massive 58.5 per cent just over a year ago.

If approximately 33million cars remain on UK roads between now and 2030, the car parc would mean a boom of electric cars from 91,000 to 6.5million.

Meanwhile, pure combustion vehicles would see a dramatic drop of 16.6 million cars.

The 12,977 respondents also predicted a boom in UK car parc share for hybrids, some new examples of which will be allowed to remain on sale until 2035 if they can cover what the government deems a  ‘significant distance’ in zero-emissions driving mode.

Conventional hybrids (that can’t be plugged into a charging device or the main) will make up 13.7 per cent of the car parc and plug-in hybrids and range extenders will make up 11.7 per cent by 2030, motorists predicted.  

The study also revealed that drivers are expecting to see hydrogen-powered cars account for 5.1 per cent of the parc, despite there being very few examples on sale currently and only a handful of hydrogen filling stations in the UK. 

Throughout 2020, new EV sales skyrocketed with 108,205 cars being sold. 

The outlook of drivers will also help reinforce the decisions made by Jaguar Land Rover and Ford earlier this week, who both announced plans to move away from internal combustion engines in the next nine years.

Bosses at JLR said Jaguar will become an all-electric brand by 2025 while Land Rover will trial other zero emission fuels in the UK like hydrogen.

Ford also confirmed that all cars sold in Europe from 2026 will be either petrol or plug-in hybrid and by 2030 its entire range of passenger vehicles available on the content will be powered entirely by batteries and electric motors.

It was also revealed this week that Coventry Airport could become the site for the UK’s second electric car battery gigafactory, with Coventry City Council drawing up plans for a state-of-the-art plant to be built. 

At the end of last year, analysis by used car sales site Auto Trader suggested that the sales of new electric vehicles could overtake petrol and diesel sales by as early as 2025.

It predicted that all alternatively fuelled vehicle sales – including electric, hybrid, plug-in hybrid and hydrogen-powered cars-  could pass models with internal combustion engines even earlier, in 2024. 

Edmund King, president of the motoring organisation, said: ‘Over the next nine years, electric cars could supercharge the way we drive. 

‘There is clearly a desire from drivers to own them. EVs will play a significant role in the future.

‘Everything is working in favour of electric cars. The range of a single charge in constantly improving, the purchase and leasing prices are becoming more affordable, more models and styles are reaching the market and investments in chargepoints are being made.

‘Electric vehicle technology has the ability to unlock much more than greener motoring; providing the chance to create new jobs and opportunities. 

‘More should be done to spark the EV revolution, such as scrapping the VAT on electric cars costing less than £50,0005 and the construction of numerous gigafactories.’

There is already evidence of alternative fuel vehicles out-selling diesels on the new car market.

Jato Dynamics, which reviews motor registrations across Europe, found that electric and hybrid vehicle sales accelerated beyond diesels on the continent in September 2020.

It marked the first time in European history that electrified car sales surpassed diesels, increasing AFV market share that month to 25 per cent.

The Tesla Model 3, Renault Zoe and then-new Volkswagen ID.3 contributed most to electric car registrations in Europe that month.