By Stephen Adams Medical Editor
Thousands of pubs across northern England could be closed on the basis of what critics claim is a ‘dodgy dossier’ of evidence presented by Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty.
On Thursday Professor Whitty showed MPs data which purported to show that 33 per cent of infections may be occurring in pubs, bars, cafes and restaurants.
He proceeded to tell them that a ‘significant proportion’ of exposure to the virus was taking place in such establishments. But the conclusions were drawn from a very small sample which has since been criticised as being ‘incredibly thin’ data and a ‘dodgy dossier’.
It came from an ‘enhanced contact tracing exercise’ which asked where infected people told tracers who they had met, and where.
This ‘early analysis’ has not been published yet. If two infected people both told tracers they had been to a venue in the last week, it was seen as an indication – but not proof – that the virus might have been passed between them there.
However, in the methodology used, the two people need not have been to the venue at the same time. In the study there were 98 occasions when two or more people told contact tracers they had been to the same pub, representing 22 per cent of potential incidents of exposure.
On a further 67 occasions, meetings between two infected people took place in cafes, bars and restaurants, representing an additional 11 per cent of exposure incidents.
The results appear to contradict those from many other studies, including NHS Test and Trace data, which indicate the majority of infections take place within the home. Test and Trace figures indicate that less than five per cent of transmissions take place in pubs, bars, cafes and restaurants.
Ministers are considering much tighter restrictions on hospitality venues in areas with high infection rates, which could see thousands of pubs across the north of England forced to close in the coming days.
One Conservative MP said: ‘It is clear that the data to justify further action is incredibly thin.’
Christopher Snowden, of the Institute of Economic Affairs, said: ‘A dodgy dossier passed around by Chris Whitty in private is simply not good enough.’