Ministers could use an algorithm to help decide which vulnerable people in coronavirus hotspots should stay at home and shield, it emerged today, as the Government admitted the spread of the disease is ‘getting out of control’.
The Government is said to be working on a ‘tailored shielding’ scheme, led by deputy chief medical officer Jenny Harries, which could see hundreds of thousands of people told to avoid others in the coming winter months.
The plan is not yet finalised amid concerns about the impact a return to shielding could have on mental health but The Times said ministers are looking at using an algorithm developed by Oxford University to inform decisions on who should isolate.
The potential use of an algorithm to come up with shielding guidance is likely to spark concerns after faulty computer modelling led to the A-level results debacle.
It is thought advice for the most vulnerable not to mix with others could be included in the top tier of the Government’s new three tier lockdown system which is widely expected to be unveiled on Monday.
Boris Johnson’s plans would see the country split into three tiers, with the worst hit areas in the north of England placed in the top tier and told to close pubs and restaurants to slow the spread of the disease.
Pressure on the Government from scientists and opposition politicians is growing after infection rates continued to spike, with 17,540 new cases and 77 deaths reported yesterday.
Skills Minister Gillian Keegan told the BBC’s Question Time programme last night that two thirds of hospitalisations are happening in the North West and North East of England, as well as in Yorkshire.
She said: ‘This is serious, it is getting out of control and we have to do something to bring it back under control.’
Her stark admission came amid reports that experts on the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) fear Mr Johnson’s planned tier system does not go far enough.
According to the Guardian members of SAGE believe ministers should have pulled the trigger on a nationwide ‘circuit breaker’ lockdown in England two or three weeks ago when it was first discussed.
Scrutiny of the PM’s plans has only increased after Nicola Sturgeon yesterday imposed a two-week alcohol ban inside pubs and restaurants across Scotland, while closing bars entirely in coronavirus hotspots.
The prospect of new draconian rules being imposed across England has sparked a Tory backlash, with MPs demanding the Government set out in detail how areas subject to the tightest restrictions will be able to get them lifted.
Jake Berry, the former Northern Powerhouse minister, told the Telegraph: ‘Crucially, they need to show not just how you go into a tier but how you leave a tier because no one wants to be caught in a ‘Hotel California lockdown’ with all the damage that will cause the local economy.’
Ministers have been accused of using flimsy data after they relied on figures based on fewer than 100 pubs to justify the potential closure of tens of thousands of venues across the north of England.
There is also a growing revolt among northern political leaders as Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, promised to challenge new rules ‘in any way I can’ if the Government closes businesses ‘without providing proper compensation’.
There were an average of 17,200 new cases per day of Covid-19 in private households in England between September 25 and October 1, according to the latest estimates from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This is up from an estimated 8,400 new cases per day for the period from September 18 to 24. The ONS said there has been a ‘marked increase’ in the rate of new infections over the last six weeks.
The figures do not include people staying in hospitals, care homes or other institutional settings.
Coronavirus cases DOUBLE in a week to more than 17,000 a day
The number of people catching coronavirus every day in England more than doubled in the last week of September to a staggering 17,400, according to the Office for National Statistics.
Weekly data from the ONS revealed 224,400 people had the virus on October 1, up from 116,000 a week earlier.
It comes as MPs have warned the virus is ‘out of control’ now in the UK and the Government has not made any new announcements on what it is doing this week.
Today’s report warns ‘the number of infections has increased rapidly in recent weeks’.
There is a ‘clear variation’ across different regions of the country, the ONS said, with the highest rates of infection in the North West, North East and Yorkshire. More than one per cent of the population in those regions – one in every 100 people – were likely infected at the start of this month.
Teenagers and young adults, between the ages of 11 and 25, continue to drive up the disturbing rates of infection.
If the estimate is accurate it suggests the Department of Health’s testing programme is now picking up most of the true number of cases, with it managing to diagnose 11,000 people on October 1.
The furore over the Government’s coronavirus strategy came as:
- Office for National Statistics data showed the UK economy grew by just 2.1 per cent in August, much lower than analysts had predicted and far below the 6.4 per cent expansion recored in July.
- Rishi Sunak will today announce a new local furlough scheme which is expected to pay two thirds of the wages of employees who are unable to work because of lockdowns.
- The number of people catching coronavirus every day in England more than doubled in the last week of September to a staggering 17,400, the ONS said.
- Shadow chancellor Anneliese Dodds claimed the Chancellor’s Jobs Support Scheme is ‘forcing businesses to flip a coin over who stays and who goes’ because it is cheaper to employ one worker than two to do the same hours.
- Mr Zahawi confirmed evidence presented to MPs showed 30 per cent of coronavirus infections are coming through hospitality.
- Former Tory Treasury minister Lord O’Neill called for ‘true devolution’ to improve the coronavirus response and for a ‘tailored’ version of the furlough scheme.
- Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer, writing in the Daily Telegraph, said the Government had ‘lost control of the virus’ and urged ministers to ‘get a grip’.
- It was revealed Luton, Wolverhampton and Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly were the only three places in England to record a fall in Covid-19 infection rates over the past week – and only one of them is in a local lockdown.
Mr Johnson is said to be holding meetings in Downing Street today to hammer out the final details of his plans.
It came as Chancellor Rishi Sunak prepares to announce a new local furlough scheme to prop up jobs in lockdown areas and as ministers lashed out at Mr Johnson’s plans being leaked to the press four days before they are due to be announced.
Business minister Nadhim Zahawi said such leaks are ‘corrosive’ and result in ‘confusion’ as he insisted the ‘right thing to do is to wait for the decision’.
It emerged overnight that hundreds of thousands of vulnerable Britons may need to shield indoors for months, with fresh coronavirus curbs likely to last until at least April to stop the NHS from collapsing.
Fury over pubs crisis ‘dodgy data’: Ministers used figures based on fewer than 100 venues
Ministers were accused of using flimsy data after they relied on figures based on fewer than 100 pubs to justify the potential closure of tens of thousands of venues across the North of England.
It came as No10 faced a concerted backlash from local leaders and MPs over plans to subject millions of people living in the North to even tougher restrictions from next week.
One Tory MP said the data had been ‘cobbled together’ to justify the pub closures, using a three-month-old survey carried out in the US as well as cherry-picked figures.
Sir Keir Starmer accused Boris Johnson of causing ‘confusion, chaos and unfairness’ by revealing the exact measures will be announced next week, while they are still being discussed.
The Government claimed in a private press briefing yesterday that up to 30 per cent of coronavirus transmission is linked to pubs, bars, cafes and restaurants
Chief Medical Officer Professor Chris Whitty briefed 149 MPs from the North and the Midlands yesterday to tell them that a ‘significant proportion’ of exposure to coronavirus was happening in the hospitality sector.
He showed them a table which suggested that 32 per cent of transmission may be occurring in pubs, bars, cafes and restaurants, with only 2.6 per cent taking place in the home.
But the MPs complained the information was ‘selective’ and clearly serving the Government’s purpose.
They pointed out how the NHS Test and Trace figures show a huge 75.3 per cent of transmissions take place home, with only 5.5 per cent happening in pubs, restaurants and churches.
It is thought advice for clinically at-risk people to avoid contact with others could be included in the top tier of the Prime Minister’s ‘traffic light’ local lockdown system.
According to The Times, a decision on shielding has not yet been finalised and there are fears such a measure would be damaging to the mental health of people who would be forced to spend months at home alone.
Ms Harries is said to be leading work on a ‘tailored shielding’ scheme to replace blanket rules with personalised advice depending on an individual’s vulnerability.
It comes as chief medical officer Chris Whitty said lockdown measures could be needed for another six months amid fears the numbers of people in intensive care could exceed the April peak in the north of England by the start of next month.
And leading doctor Katherine Henderson, the head of the Royal College of Emergency Medicine, warned the NHS could implode this winter if ‘effective precautions’ are not taken.
At the start of the coronavirus lockdown in March, 2.2million people were judged to be ‘extremely vulnerable’ because of health problems and were told to stay at home and avoid all contact with others.
Studies then found that depression and anxiety were far more common in those who were shielding compared to those who weren’t.
Vulnerable people were also more worried about getting food and other essentials.
A Whitehall source told The Times that a new, more personalised approach is planned.
‘The intention is not to bring back the same programme but to be more targeted in the measures and what you ask people to do,’ they said.
‘It is a big ask to lock people away to cocoon over what could be a long winter.’
People could instead be told to take personal precautions, such as avoiding shopping at busy times.
An algorithm developed by Oxford University could be used to decide who needs to take the strictest precautions.
And in a presentation to more than 130 MPs, Professor Whitty said new vaccines and treatments could be available in January but added the crisis would only ease in April.
He made the briefing as part of preparation for new lockdown measures set to be imposed on Monday.
Professor Whitty said the number of people in intensive care in the north of England could be as high as 304 within 22 days. That would be two more than the original peak in April.
When asked how long restrictions would be in place, Professor Whitty said it could be for between five and six months ‘on and off’.
One MP told The Times, ‘He said things would really get better in April when the seasons were working in their favour.
‘The message was ‘this isn’t going on for five years’.’
Sir Graham Brady, who opposed the Government in the Parliamentary vote on the Rule of Six restrictions earlier this week, gave a warning about any new measures.
He said he hoped that any new measures would be ‘proportionate’ and supported by the ‘proper evidence.’
The influential MP added that if he Government wants to introduce further restrictions on the north and the Midlands, then it was ‘essential’ that Parliament be allowed to ‘approve or reject’ the plans.
It came as No10 faced a concerted backlash from local leaders and MPs over plans to subject millions of people living in the North to even tougher restrictions from next week.
One Tory MP said the data had been ‘cobbled together’ to justify the pub closures, using a three-month-old survey carried out in the US as well as cherry-picked figures.
Sir Keir Starmer accused Boris Johnson of causing ‘confusion, chaos and unfairness’ by revealing the exact measures will be announced next week, while they are still being discussed.
Prof Whitty briefed 149 MPs from the North and the Midlands yesterday to tell them that a ‘significant proportion’ of exposure to coronavirus was happening in the hospitality sector.
He showed them a table which suggested that 32 per cent of transmission may be occurring in pubs, bars, cafes and restaurants, with only 2.6 per cent taking place in the home.
But the MPs complained the information was ‘selective’ and clearly serving the Government’s purpose.
They pointed out how the NHS Test and Trace figures show a huge 75.3 per cent of transmissions take place home, with only 5.5 per cent happening in pubs, restaurants and churches.
UK economy grew by just 2.1 per cent in August
The UK economy grew by just 2.1 per cent in August as the recovery from the coronavirus crisis stalled despite Rishi Sunak’s Eat Out to Help Out scheme.
Data published this morning by the Office for National Statistics showed that the rate of growth was much lower than the 4.6 per cent which analysts were expecting.
The 2.1 per cent figure is also massively down on the 6.4 per cent expansion recorded in July.
The numbers are likely to fuel fears that a V-shaped economic bounce back from the damage done by the pandemic is now slowing ahead of further uncertainty in the coming winter months.
The data represents a hammer blow to the Chancellor after his initiative to get more people back into restaurants and pubs by paying for half of their meals throughout August proved not to be enough to sustain the overall growth seen in July.
The ONS’s deputy national statistician for economic statistics Jonathan Athow said: ‘The economy continued to recover in August but by less than in recent months.
‘There was strong growth in restaurants and accommodation due to the easing of lockdown rules, the Eat Out to Help Out scheme, and people choosing summer staycations. However, many other parts of the service sector recorded muted growth.’
August represented the fourth consecutive month of economic growth after the British economy was hammered by lockdown.
However, the 2.1 per cent was less than half of the 4.6 per cent which had been expected by analysts, according to a consensus taken by Pantheon Macroeconomics.
In July, the UK’s gross domestic product (GDP) was up by 6.4 per cent, and in June it rose by 9.1 per cent.
Housing Secretary Robert Jenrick came close yesterday to confirming the plans to close pubs and restaurants in hotspot areas.
‘It is correct to say the number of cases in the North West and the North East and a number of cities, particularly in the Midlands like Nottingham, are rising fast and that is a serious situation,’ he said.
‘We are currently considering what steps we should take, obviously taking the advice of our scientific and medical advisers, and a decision will be made shortly.
‘But I’m not able to give you right now exactly what is going to happen.’
Asked if there will be an announcement linked to the hospitality trade next week, Mr Jenrick said: ‘We are considering the evidence. In some parts of the country, the number of cases are rising very fast and we are taking that very seriously.
‘If we do have to take further steps, then obviously we will take very seriously how we can help and support those individual businesses.’
Dr Henderson said of the need to press ahead with lockdown measures, ‘If we do not take effective precautions, Covid will continue its explosion across the country, a devastating consequence of which could be the implosion of our NHS this winter.’
Mr Hancock echoed her concerns when he told the NHS Providers annual conference yesterday: ‘We are at a perilous moment in the course of this pandemic.
‘I am very worried about the growth in the number of cases, especially in the North West and the North East of England, parts of Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland and parts of Yorkshire.’
He added: ‘In parts of the country the situation is again becoming very serious.
‘Hospitalisations in the North West are doubling approximately every fortnight. They have risen by 57 per cent in just the last week alone.
‘Unfortunately we’re seeing hospitalisations in the over-60s rising sharply and the number of deaths from coronavirus also rising.’
Mr Hancock suggested that localised crackdowns will be a part of life until a working vaccine is found and can be rolled out on a mass scale.
He said: ‘We know from bitter experience that the more coronavirus spreads, the harder it is to do all the other vital work of the NHS too.’
He continued: ‘The message to the public must be that we all have a part to play to control this virus.
‘Our strategy is simple – suppress the virus, supporting the economy, education and the NHS until a vaccine can make us safe.’
Mr Hancock said his ‘message to everyone in the NHS is that we can and we will get through this’.
‘Sadly, there will be more difficult times ahead but we will get through this together,’ he added.
These graphs were also shown at the briefing. The suggest infections across all age groups are higher in the North of England than the rest of the country
Data from PHE shows how Covid-19 infection rates are rising in different regions among different ethnicities
Separate data shows how infection rates are rising among different age groups in the different regions of England
The red sea of virus: Only Luton, Wolverhampton, and Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly saw Covid-19 infection rates drop last week
Luton, Wolverhampton and Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly were the only three places in England to record a fall in Covid-19 infection rates over the past week – and only one of them is in a local lockdown.
Wolverhampton, where residents are not allowed to meet friends and family in each other’s homes or gardens, saw weekly infections drop by 1.6 per cent from 70.2 to 69.1 per 100,000 people, according to a Public Health England surveillance report published yesterday.
In Luton the rate dipped by 4.3 per cent from 53.7 to 51.4 per 100,000. Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly saw the biggest drop in cases across the country, after their rate fell by 33.34 per cent from 31.2 to 20.8 per 100,000.
The figures add to the evidence that local lockdowns aren’t working – with up to 50 regions in England hit by tougher measures as the Government attempts to crack down on spiralling infections. Labour slammed local lockdowns imposed on regions after it unearthed data revealing 19 out of 20 areas struggling under tougher measures continued to see a rise in infections.
Places like Bolton, which was at the epicentre of the outbreak, have seen rates spike since restrictions were imposed. The latest data from Public Health England shows their rate surged by almost 40 per cent in the past week, reaching 250.6 per 100,000.
Nottingham is now England’s Covid-19 hotspot, separate statistics revealed last night. It is yet to have any further restrictions imposed but the city’s rate rocketed 580 per cent last week, with around 600 cases for every 100,000 people.
His comments prompted accusations that he was trying to ‘bounce’ Mr Johnson into closing the hospitality sector in the North.
Dr Helen Stokes-Lampard, the chair of the Academy of Medical Royal Colleges which represents the UK and Ireland’s 24 medical royal colleges, said that people need to strictly follow restrictions or the NHS could be ‘unable to cope’.
She told BBC Breakfast: ‘Given the recent dramatic spike in both the number of cases and hospital admissions it is clear that we could soon be back to where we were in April if we are not all extremely careful.’
Professor John Edmunds, a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), denied that scientists were imposing measures on Mr Johnson.
He said that a short sharp shock was needed to ‘stop the epidemic from getting out of control in the next few weeks or months and overwhelming the health service’.
‘We are not that far away from that. I hate to be gloomy, but in the North of England now we are not that far away from the health service being stretched,’ he told a Royal Society of Medicine webinar.
Prof Edmunds denied scientists were ‘holding a gun to the PM’s head’ on the restrictions. ‘It’s the virus holding a gun to the PM’s head,’ he said.
Leaked documents suggest the PM is poised to unveil a new three-tier system of lockdown measures designed to make the system easier to understand.
Areas with relatively low infection levels will be placed in tier one, where only national restrictions such as the rule of six and 10pm curfew will apply.
Tier two will also include bans on home visits and indoor socialising with other households.
Options for tier three include total closure of the hospitality sector, a ban on overnight stays outside the home and the closure of venues such as cinemas.
A Treasury source said the measures should be ‘as reticent as possible’.
Reports also emerged of a rift between Mr Hancock and Mr Sunak, with the Chancellor said to be furious that the Government is pressing ahead with its ‘traffic light system’ of restrictions proposed for 13 million people in the north of England.
Instead of introducing yet more complicated curbs, Mr Sunak’s view is that the Government should be plotting a clear path back to ‘normality’ to prevent further devastation to the economy.
The top tier in the new traffic light measures is expected to apply to Manchester, Liverpool and Newcastle – three cities that have continued to see infection rises despite other restrictions.
Hospitality businesses are set to be shut under the new measures, likely to be confirmed Monday and imposed from Wednesday, but shops, offices and schools will stay open.
Ministers are still mulling the fate of hairdressers and leisure facilities – but Mr Sunak will bring forward a special furlough-style compensation scheme for workers and firms hammered by the curbs.
Conservative MPs and local leaders in the North have been venting fury about the government’s stance, with former minister Mr Berry accusing the premier of being ‘London-centric’ and enjoying his sweeping emergency powers ‘a little bit too much’.
Politicians in Manchester, Liverpool, Newcastle and Sheffield raged at ‘diktats announced without notice’ and said ministers were treating the North like a ‘petri dish for experimentation’ while the South gets off lightly.
But health minister Nadine Dorries warned those telling the government not to impose further curbs that otherwise hospital admissions will be ‘at a critical stage’ in 10 days’ time.
The extent of anger among Tories – and crucially MPs from the ‘Red Wall’ of former Labour seats that delivered Mr Johnson his stunning majority in December – was on display last night as the Commons debated the local restrictions.
Rossendale and Darwen MP Mr Berry, who was Northern Powerhouse minister under Theresa May, said: ‘I think the Government has fallen into that fatal trap of making national decisions based on a London-centric view with London data.’
He raised concerns over liberties and freedoms adding: ‘Day by day we see those liberties and freedoms being given away back to the Government in the name of Covid.
‘I’m afraid that has to stop, because once we give these up they will not come back to us, the Government will not return them to us.’
He added: ‘The worst of society is the Government enjoying these new powers a little bit too much.
‘Police officers fining people for being in their front gardens, a bizarre ban on sunbathing on your own in public open spaces.’
Conservative MP for Crewe and Nantwhich Dr Kieran Mullan called for the Government to ‘work harder’ at proving its policies are evidence-based and effective.
Dehenna Davison, who took the Bishop Auckland constituency into Tory hands for the first time in history, highlighted the difficulties for a pub landlord who made his premises Covid-secure but has seen his takings fall dramatically.
Ms Davison said: ‘Last weekend he told me rather than his usual Saturday take of £5,000 to £6,000, he took only £128 all day – not even enough to cover his entire staffing bill.
‘Between the 10 o’clock curfew and the lack of households being able to meet, I’m really concerned these restrictions without additional financial support may have the overall impact of closing pubs not just for lockdown but for good.’
Liverpool’s Labour mayor Steve Rotheram told ITV’s GMB programme: ‘What we’ve seen is an ever-widening North-South divide in measures being taken.
‘Quite simply the North should not be a petri dish for experimentation by central government.’
Mr Burnham said: ‘No discussion. No consultation. Millions of lives affected by Whitehall diktat. It is proving impossible to deal with this Government.’