The SAGE files: Shutting UK’s borders would have ‘little value’ in stopping Covid-19 crisis

Scientists steered the Government away from shutting the UK’s borders because it would have ‘surprisingly little value’ in stopping Covid-19’s spread, secret advice papers published today revealed.  

One of the scientific reports presented to ministers in May to help guide them through the crisis said restricting air travel would have virtually no effect because the damage was already done.

If borders were locked down right at the beginning of the pandemic, however, it could have prevented a full-blown crisis, as was seen in the likes of Australia and New Zealand.

Another study found that giving immunity passports to Covid-19 survivors – a measure touted by Health Secretary Matt Hancock in April – would only be safe if these people were also tested every month for antibodies.

The Government was also told in early May that mandatory mask-wearing could help control the crisis by stopping asymptomatic people spreading the disease.

Some 40 documents were today published by the Government Office for Science, which is headed by Sir Patrick Vallance, England’s chief scientific adviser.

They are among dozens in a tranche of papers presented to SAGE, the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, over recent months to help guide ministers through the crisis.

And the reports detail all the scientific advice which is being presented to decision-making officials who dictate when and how the country moves out of lockdown.

Files released today revealed scientists told the Government: 

• Mandatory face masks could help control the epidemic by stopping asymptomatic people spreading the disease, SAGE was warned in early May;
• Monthly antibody testing should be carried out on anyone given an ‘immunity passport’ because scientists have no idea how long antibodies protect survivors from reinfection;
• SAGE was warned in April that 90 per cent of care homes would suffer outbreaks of Covid if infection rates continued; 
• Imperial College London predicts 16,000 people will die each day over the coming winter from Covid-19 – even with ‘good compliance’ with Government measures;  
• Whole household isolation – dismissed as a Covid-containing tactic early on in crisis – would have pushed epidemic curve back 1.5months and should be reconsidered; 
• Waiting until Easter to shut schools would have risked spike in ICU capacity with another 1,000 critically-ill cases in hospital each week; 
• Easing lockdown in April would have led to second wave that was just as ‘extreme and much longer in duration’.

The latest batch of SAGE papers, which are being released in a bid to show greater transparency from the Government, come as 173 more deaths have been confirmed.

There have now been a total of 42,461 people who died after testing positive for the coronavirus in the UK, but many more who weren’t tested haven’t yet been counted.

Here, MailOnline takes a look at some of the stand-out papers from today:  

UK missed its chance to control the epidemic by shutting its borders 

Two separate reports advised the Government not to shut its borders in April and May because the damage was already done in February and March.

One of the studies was a 2006 paper modelling the effect of restricting incoming flights in the event of a highly-infectious flu pandemic.

Researchers from the Health Protection Agency – which ceased operations in 2013 – found ‘restrictions on air travel were likely to be of surprisingly little value in delaying epidemics, unless almost all travel ceases very soon after epidemics are detected’.  

SAGE then handed a separate paper to Government in early May reiterating that there was ‘little scientific justification’ for putting restrictions at the border.