Only 33,000 people in England currently have the coronavirus, according to estimates from the Office for National Statistics.
The data, based on testing of almost 20,000 people in the community, shows the number of people with the virus outside of hospitals and care homes is tumbling.
When hospital and care home cases, of which more than a thousand are still being diagnosed every day, are included the total is higher, but the virus is fading among members of the public.
When the same estimates were published on May 28, just a fortnight ago, they suggested 133,000 people were carrying the virus, many without knowing it.
But England’s outbreak is continuing on a ‘clear downward trend’, statisticians say, with around 31,600 new infections each week – around 4,500 per day.
This shows that, as the R value remains below one – the latest estimate is between 0.7 and 0.9 – fewer and fewer people are contracting the deadly virus.
The ONS data says just 0.06 per cent of the population is infected, showing the infection rate is now around one positive case in every 1,790 people in the community.
And this week’s report, which relates to the period between May 25 and June 7, is recent enough to include the effects of the first easing of lockdown measures, when the rules on spending time outside were relaxed on May 13. This does not, according to the ONS data, appear to have led to rise in cases.
Statisticians wrote in their report this morning that a complex investigation of the data ‘confirms there is a clear downward trend’ but warned about interpreting raw figures.
The range of possible current cases is somewhere between 14,000 and 68,000, the statisticians said, while somewhere between 22,700 and 43,5000 new cases were appearing each week.
They added: ‘As the proportion of those testing positive in England is decreasing over time, it is likely that the incidence rate is also decreasing.
‘However, because of the low number of new positive cases, we cannot currently measure a statistically significant reduction.’
ONS estimates were based on just 11 positive tests from a sample of 19,933 people tested across 9,179 households.
Although the small numbers mean one error in either direction could significantly change the estimate, it suggests a tiny proportion of the population has Covid-19.
The statistics announced today show a marked drop on those released in the two weeks since the data first became available.
When the information was first published on May 21, 0.25 per cent of the population was thought to be infected with the virus.
This has since dropped to 0.1 per cent last week, June 4, and to 0.06 per cent today, June 12.
The estimated number of members of the public carrying the virus at any one time has tumbled over the same time period, from a predicted 137,000 in May to just 33,000 today. Today’s figure was accurate at June 7, but is the most recent data.
The Department of Health has today grasped the promising statistics and said: ‘Our plan is working.’
A spokesperson added: ‘Infections of this virus have now dropped to approximately 4,500 a day.
‘Thanks to the work of our health and care workers and the huge efforts of the British people to slow the rate of infection, rates of COVID-19 infections are decreasing over time.
‘ONS’s Infection Survey is a vital part of our testing strategy, and we will continue to learn from its insights to expand our understanding of the virus.’
Data in the ONS publication covers two-weekly periods so some overlap – for example the data published today contains one of the same weeks (the week ending May 31) as the data published last Friday.
The tests used in the survey, which are analysed by the universities of Oxford and Manchester, are sent only to people at home.
People who test positive for the virus in hospitals or care homes, therefore, are not included in the overall estimate of the population levels of the virus.
A project being run by the University of Cambridge and Public Health England, which has aimed to account for all sources of infection, last week suggested the number of daily new infections is about three times as high as the ONS estimate.
The MRC Biostatistics Unit COVID-19 Working Group said on June 5 it thought 16,700 people were still catching the virus each day in England.
It has not updated its estimate so far this week.
One of the key members of the group, Dr Paul Birrell explained to MailOnline: ‘The ONS study estimates only infection in the community.
‘They’re not sampling people living in institutions such as care homes, long-term hospital residents or prisons… where one might expect the prevalence and incidence of infection to be higher. I’m not sure this is enough to bridge the gap [between estimates] entirely.’
When asked which set of figures people should believe, he said: ‘Nobody definitively. We’ll be working closely with the ONS to see if we can unpick the differences over the coming weeks.’
The ONS data also revealed that results from 97 people who tested positive for Covid-19 suggests only 23 per cent of them reported experiencing one or more symptoms at the time of their test.
Some 33 per cent reported experiencing symptoms at any point in the period around testing positive.
This raises the worrying prospect that many people do not realise they have the virus at the time they may be most likely to infect others because, without symptoms, they will carry on with daily life and interact with people.
Separate figures from the ONS blood antibody study – looking at how many people have had coronavirus in the past – suggests 6.8 per cent of people have had the virus already.
This estimate has not changed since last week and is based on blood test results from a small sample of 885 people since the start of the study on April 26. It is not yet known whether people who have had coronavirus already are immune from catching or carrying it again.
Up to 5.6million people in England – 10% of the country – may have already had the coronavirus, government antibody sampling scheme reveals
Up to 5.6million people in England could have already had the coronavirus, according to results of a government-run surveillance scheme.
Blood samples taken from almost 8,000 people suggest up to 10 per cent of the country have antibodies specific to Covid-19, showing they have had the disease in the past.
Public Health England’s best estimate is that 8.5 per cent of people in England have already had the coronavirus – 4.76million people. But this, it admitted, could be as high as 10 per cent (5.6m) or as low as 6.9 per cent (3.864m).
Regional variations show that the rate of infection has been considerably higher in London, with 15.6 per cent of the city’s population already affected. And it has been lowest in the South West, where only 2.6 per cent of people are thought to have had the virus.
The national prevalence of antibodies suggests that, with around 43,000 deaths from a population of 56million people, the true death rate of Covid-19 is 0.9 per cent – nine times deadlier than the flu.
This suggests it kills one in every 111 people who catch the disease will die with it. The death rate was again lower in London, where it appeared to be 0.57 per cent.
PHE’s data was based on blood tests taken from 7,694 people across England in May, of which around 654 tested positive. It chimes with other estimates which suggest similar numbers.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) put the national level of past infection at 6.78 per cent – around 4.5million people in the UK – while Health Secretary Matt Hancock had previously announced early PHE results suggesting it was only five per cent nationwide.
Data from Public Health England showed that London has the largest proportion of its population already infected with the coronavirus, while the fewest people were infected in the South West of England
The death rate calculations are based on a total 43,353 deaths in England, which is composed of the 42,210 recorded by May 22 by the Office for National Statistics, plus a further 1,143 announced by NHS England since then.
Government data records mean non-hospital deaths specifically for England cannot yet be counted between May 22 and June 4.
And the estimate for London’s death rate follows the same formula – the ONS announced 8,034 by May 22 and 78 have died in hospitals since then: a total 8,112.
Scientists say that the reason for a lower death rate in London is that the city has a younger average age than other regions.
Covid-19 is known to be worse for elderly people, who are more likely to die if they catch the virus. It has killed one in every 57 over-90s in the country already.
Professor Keith Neal, an epidemiologist at the University of Nottingham, said: ‘I would consider the average of Londoners to be younger than outside.
‘If people in London were seven years younger then there would be a 50 per cent lower death rate just from this measure alone. Also land is expensive in London so probably fewer care homes than outside per head of population.’
London’s rate may also be lower because it has had far more infections, meaning more will have been among healthier people in the community. In areas with fewer coronavirus cases, there is a chance a greater proportion of the cases were caught in hospitals or care homes by people who were more likely to die – this would artificially increase the death rate.
Antibody testing is a method of sampling people’s blood to look for antibodies, which are made by the body so it can remember how to fight off certain diseases.
Only someone who has already had Covid-19 will have antibodies in the blood.
By running blood samples through a machine which contains a part of the virus, scientists can monitor whether the blood reacts in a way that shows it knows how to fight the virus – this indicates they have had the illness in the past and recovered.
PHE’s data gives regional breakdowns of the levels of antibodies it has found in blood samples so far.
The numbers are still based on relatively small samples so must be treated with caution.
These were the approximate regional proportions of people who have had the virus already:
- England 8.5 per cent
- London: 15.6 per cent
- North West: 10 per cent
- East of England: 8 per cent
- North East: 6.1 per cent
- Midlands: 5 per cent
- South East: 4 per cent
- South West: 2.6 per cent