Coronavirus UK: Death toll hits 12,107 with 813 more deaths

The UK has announced 778 more deaths from the coronavirus today, taking the UK’s total to 12,107 after three weeks of nationwide lockdown. 

NHS England confirmed 744 more patients have died in its hospitals and a total of 34 fatalities were announced across Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. 

The increase from 717 deaths recorded yesterday is small – 8.5 per cent – but it comes at the end of a four-day bank holiday weekend, meaning deaths that happened after Wednesday last week may be underreported because of a data lag which appears to happen every weekend.

A more promising development is the apparent stabilising of the number of people being diagnosed with the virus each day – 5,252 more people were diagnosed in the past 24 hours, taking the total number of positive tests so far to 93,873. This has risen from a week low of 4,342 yesterday but is lower than four of the past six days. 

Government scientists have cautioned against pinning too much hope to the numbers of people dying because they date back up to two weeks and do not represent the situation on the day they’re published.

By the end of March coronavirus had become a contributing factor in one in every five deaths in England (21.2 per cent), according to separate data published today, and more people died in the first week of April than in any other week of the past 15 years. 

Today’s statistics come amid a row over care homes’ role in the ongoing crisis. Elderly people account for the vast majority of COVID-19 deaths but authorities are not routinely testing the 400,000 Britons who live in care homes and records only publish homes’ death statistics in once-weekly updates which are 10 days out of date.

And a shocking analysis from the Office for Budget Responsibility, an arms-length government organisation, has warned Britain’s economy could shrink by a third as a result of the coronavirus and, if the lockdown lasts for another two months, 10 per cent of the workforce (two million people) could end up unemployed.

In other coronavirus news:

• A total of 406 deaths involving Covid-19 in England and Wales registered up to April 3 occurred outside of hospitals, according to provisional figures from the Office for National Statistics; 
• Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon hit out at reports medical protective equipment has been diverted from Scottish care homes to English ones, saying she ‘will not stand by and be treated unfairly’; 
• Teachers are ‘disturbed’ by ‘unhelpful’ speculation that schools and colleges will reopen soon amid the COVID-19 pandemic, according to the largest education union in Europe; 
• 10 Downing Street’s chief adviser, Dominic Cummings, has returned to work after going into self-isolation when Mr Johnson tested positive for the coronavirus; 
• Boris Johnson is not taking any phone calls or receiving official papers as he recuperates from coronavirus at Chequers in Buckinghamshire, his spokesperson said; 
• Government advisers criticised the ‘all or nothing’ approach to lockdown and said there is no evidence that sunbathing presents a transmission risk;
• It was revealed the UK has missed three chances to participate in an EU scheme to buy huge quantities of personal protective equipment (PPE) for NHS staff;
• Europe took its first tentative steps towards a return to normality as some countries including Austria, Italy and Spain start to re-open businesses.

NHS England today said its newest update meant 11,005 people in England have now died after testing positive for COVID-19.

The 744 patients were aged between 34 and 102 and 58 of them were otherwise healthy, the youngest of whom was 38 and the oldest 96.

After a lapse behind the Midlands yesterday, London has returned to its position as the centre of the UK’s outbreak, accounting for 206 of the deaths announced today.

Meanwhile 143 more people have died in the North West, 109 in the Midlands, 95 in the East of England, 93 in the North East & Yorkshire, 73 in the South East and 25 in the South West. 

The Department of Health has officially recorded 34 more deaths for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, but the devolved nations independently recorded more.

Scotland said 40 more people have died there, Wales 19 and Northern Ireland 10 – a total of 69 – meaning the true number for Britain is at least 12,142.

Because the four governments record their data at different times these statistics do not line up – some of those that happen outside of England will be recorded by Whitehall tomorrow instead.

Today’s update comes as a different set of data published this morning, by the Office for National Statistics, an independent governmental statistics department, revealed the true COVID-19 death toll may be 15 per cent higher than the Department of Health’s daily announcements let on.  

The ONS found that, by April 3, the NHS in England had recorded 5,186 COVID-19 deaths but a count of death certificates on which the disease was mentioned put the true figure at 5,979 – a rise of 793 (15.3 per cent). 

Those 793 people were those who died in care homes, hospices and their own houses and are now being referred to as the crisis’s hidden victims. 

If this same proportion is scaled up to Britain’s current death toll – 12,107 – it could mean there are at least 1,816 people who have already died at home and not been counted. 

Nick Stripe, head of health analysis at the ONS said: ‘The latest comparable data for deaths involving COVID-19 with a date of death up to 3 April, show there were 6,235 deaths in England and Wales. 

‘When looking at data for England, this is 15 per cent higher than the NHS numbers as they include all mentions of COVID-19 on the death certificate, including suspected COVID-19, as well as deaths in the community.’

The disparity in death tolls has drawn attention to the escalating crisis being faced by nursing homes across the UK, which say they are not being included in the Government’s response despite elderly people being the most at risk of dying if they catch the coronavirus. 

Over-80s account for 52 per cent of all the coronavirus deaths in England’s hospitals so far (5,669 out of 11,005) while 92 per cent of everyone who has died has been 60 or older (10,075 people). 

Despite this and the fact that there are more than 400,000 people living in nursing homes, according to Labour’s Shadow Minister for Social Care, Liz Kendall, routine testing is not carried out at the facilities. 

Close quarters in the homes, physical contact with nursing staff and the likelihood of residents having other health problems make them potential havens for COVID-19 to spread.

Calling for better tracking of the coronavirus in care homes, Ms Kendall said today: ‘We urgently need these figures on a daily basis to help deal with the emerging crisis in social care and ensure everything possible is being done to protect more than 400,000 elderly and disabled people who live in nursing and residential care homes.

‘The Government has rightly said the NHS will get whatever resources it needs to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic. This must also apply to social care, which needs a much greater priority and focus than it has had so far.’

Care home bosses themselves have come forward to declare coronavirus outbreaks in their homes and just two companies that operate in the UK say they have more than 500 deaths between them – more than double the officially-recorded 217 to date.

Sir David Behan, non-executive chairman of HC-One, the UK’s biggest provider, revealed 311 residents and one member of staff have died in its homes as a result of suspected COVID-19 and it has had more than 2,400 infections.

He told Radio 4 this morning: ‘This terrible virus does target older people and people with underlying conditions.

‘What that means is some of the frailest elderly people we’ve got in our society are in care homes and therefore those people are at increased risk.’

Sir David said it was ‘realistic’ to assume that two thirds of all care homes in the country had coronavirus outbreaks and that the death tolls they were seeing were significantly higher than the numbers in the public domain. 

The UK is now entering its fourth week of lockdown after Prime Minister Boris Johnson gave his pivotal ‘stay at home’ speech from Downing Street on March 23 before he fell ill.

All but essential businesses remain closed, the majority of people are working from home or furloughed, and trips out of the home remain limited to one a day for exercise or essential shopping or medical appointments.

The Government and its Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) will review the progress of the lockdown later this week but it is not expected to make any changes.

Instead, the current situation is expected to last into May and potentially beyond, with measures being lifted gradually rather than an end date being set. 

Britain’s economy, however, will face dire consequences of the extended social distancing enforcements.

The Government’s watchdog, the Office for Budget Responsibility, today warned the economy could shrink by more than a third this quarter alone with two million people made jobless if the lockdown continues for two more months.

Shocking analysis from the OBR underlines the trade-offs being made to combat the deadly disease by putting the country into lockdown.

It warns curbs staying in place for three months will slash GDP by 35 per cent, with unemployment soaring to 10 per cent and the government’s deficit hitting £273billion – the highest level since the Second World War.

The watchdog ominously said it was assumed ‘for now’ there will not be any permanent economic damage, and much of the crash will be unwound as pent-up demand is unleashed when the lockdown finally ends. However, the resulting 13 per cent year-on-year drop will still be worse than anything in the last century.

Responding to the chilling scenario – which emerged as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted the worst global downturn since the Great Depression in 1929 – Chancellor Rishi Sunak said: ‘People should know there is hardship ahead.’

The apocalyptic figures emerged after Dominic Raab moved to quash the idea of an imminent loosening, with the UK now facing restrictions until at least May 7.

But there is growing alarm about the potential death toll from economic misery, with life expectancy set to take a major hit. Doctors have also warned that suspending all non-urgent NHS operations to focus on coronavirus cases means more cancer and heart disease patients will die.

The Cabinet is divided between ‘hawks’ and ‘doves’ over whether to push to ease the lockdown soon, with some saying the public is obeying social distancing too well and must be urged to keep working where possible.

But concerns have been raised that it is impossible to lift the curbs at the moment anyway because the public is so strongly in favour of them staying in place, and would simply refuse to go back to normal.

To underline the sense of drift the full Cabinet meeting was cancelled today for the second week running, as Boris Johnson recuperates from the disease at Chequers.