Has Boris’s guru found the key to getting economy out of lockdown?

Boris Johnson’s former economic adviser is set to hand Cabinet Ministers a detailed plan to safely reboot Britain’s economy, The Mail on Sunday can reveal.

Gerard Lyons, a highly respected economist who was in the running to become Bank of England Governor, will lay out how shops could reopen within weeks under strict social distancing rules. 

The MoS understands the blueprint will be one of several competing plans circulated in the Cabinet as Ministers debate a lockdown exit strategy.

The framework set out by Lyons, an adviser during Johnson’s spell as London’s mayor, proposes reintroducing activities in stages, according to the risk they pose to public health.

Lyons will also call for economists and health experts to work together on an exit strategy, arguing his ‘traffic light’ plan of a red, amber and green phase would limit the spread of the virus without prolonging the financial pain that full lockdown is causing to families and business.

Under his masterplan, the country would shift into the red phase as early as May 1 if the Government’s scientific advisers believe the country is ready. People could visit nearby family members and friends, but house parties and small gatherings would be discouraged.

The public would be instructed not to visit the elderly or vulnerable and would have to keep two metres apart in public places.

They could shop in a small number of independent stores reopening on high streets, following social distancing rules. The shops would only allow a small number of customers inside at a time and staff would wear protective masks and gloves.

Shoppers would queue outside if there were too many customers, and retailers would be advised against launching sales that might attract large swathes of shoppers.

Bigger outlets and department stores would remain closed to prevent crowds, but malls could open.

The amber phase would start three weeks later – as early as May 22 – as long as medical data showed the virus was still under control.

At this stage, schools and public transport would reopen in full and people would be allowed to travel anywhere in the country by car.

Restaurants could take bookings again albeit under strict conditions, including ensuring seating plans stick to social distancing rules.

The public would still be asked to work from home where possible, and those taking public transport would have to wear masks and gloves. Workplaces might also have to stagger shifts to stop trains and buses becoming crowded.

Popular beauty spots, such as beaches and national parks, would remain closed to prevent crowds. 

Lyons says the ‘green’ phase could start three weeks later on June 13, again only if health experts allow it. Working hours could return to normal, and football matches, concerts and theatre shows could resume. Airlines could start flying again, but not to at-risk destinations.

This phase would require Ministers to take steps to boost spending again. Lyons has suggested slashing VAT. He said: ‘We have both a health crisis and an economic crisis, and both are very important.

‘We need to be past the worst of the health crisis before we can focus on the positive economic outlook. But when the data shows it is safe to do so, the future should be decided by medics and economists working together.’

Lyons’ framework – co-authored with University College London’s Professor Paul Ormerod – will be published next week as debate over the best exit strategy intensifies.

It is thought that a policy to allow the under-30s out of lockdown first – proposed by academics at Warwick University – has won some supporters in Downing Street.

But Lyons believes his plan is the best way to prevent the economy from tanking while making sure patients do not overwhelm the NHS. He warns that policies allowing younger people or people living in certain parts of the country to leave lockdown first would threaten progress in fighting the virus.

‘There is a real risk that the younger group returns to socialising in the way they did before the lockdown, because they naturally feel safer,’ Lyons said.

‘The virus could spread rapidly in this group and any further upsurge in the virus means you would not be able to relax rules for other groups. Also, it is difficult to know how to treat younger people who live with their parents.’

China has opened up different parts of the country at different times, but Lyons warned this would not work here. He said: ‘Unlocking based on geography would be the least sensible option for the UK.

‘We’re a small, tightly-knit economy, and have just a few remote places. People find it too easy to travel from one place to another.’