The coronavirus pandemic could be over by June if countries follow China’s example of strict health measures, a Beijing medical adviser claimed today.
Epidemiologist Zhong Nanshan urged countries to ‘get mobilised’ and ‘intervene on a national scale’ to halt a crisis which is now spiralling outside China.
Zhong, who is credited with helping to combat the SARS outbreak in 2003, warned that the current crisis would ‘last longer’ if countries ‘do not treat the infectiousness and harmfulness seriously’.
Beijing says that the ‘peak of the epidemic has passed for China’ with only a trickle of new cases and the number of new patients in Hubei province falling to single digits for the first time yesterday.
Medical workers pose for photos outside a makeshift hospital in Wuhan which has now been closed as the outbreak in China eases up
Chinese authorities credit their strict measures including a near-total lockdown of Hubei province with bringing the virus under control.
However, the outbreak is worsening outside China and was yesterday declared a pandemic by the World Health Organisation.
Italy is among the nations to have taken aggressive measures, shutting schools and shops across the country in a nationwide quarantine.
In the U.S. Donald Trump has imposed a travel ban on Europe but has not announced any measures to stop the spread of the virus within America.
Boris Johnson is facing growing pressure to implement drastic health measures in the UK, but has so far resisted calls to shut schools or ban public gatherings.
European Central Bank chief Christine Lagarde today took aim at eurozone governments for not taking faster action to contain the economic impact.
‘I’m particularly worried about… the complacency and slow motion process that would be demonstrated by the fiscal authorities of the euro area in particular,’ she told reporters in Frankfurt.
Beijing medical adviser Zhong said at a news conference today: ‘If all countries could get mobilised, it could be over by June.
‘My advice is calling for all countries to follow WHO instructions and intervene on a national scale.’
The 83-year-old said viruses in the same family typically become less active in warm months, which could help slow the spread.
‘My estimate of June is based on scenarios that all countries take positive measures,’ he said.
‘But if some countries do not treat the infectiousness and harmfulness seriously, and intervene strongly, it would last longer.’
Medical staff work at a hospital ward in Wuhan today, in Hubei province which is loosening its drastic quarantine measures
Later on Thursday, Zhong held a teleconference with a group of U.S. medical experts, including from Harvard University, state television reported.
Zhong and his team shared their experiences of quickly testing and containing the virus, difficulties in treatment, and cooperation in clinical research, the report said.
Mi Feng, a spokesman for China’s National Health Commission, said that ‘broadly speaking, the peak of the epidemic has passed for China’.
‘The increase of new cases is falling,’ said Feng.
Hubei province has today announced a further loosening of travel restrictions, with some industries allowed to resume production.
The economy of the province, including a sizeable auto sector in Wuhan where the outbreak began, had been virtually shut down since January 23.
Temporary hospitals which were hurriedly built to manage the outbreak in Wuhan have since been decommissioned.
Only 15 new cases were recorded in mainland China on Wednesday, down from 24 the day before.
Seven of the new cases were outside Hubei, including six imported from abroad – a new concern for China.
The total number of cases recorded in mainland China was 80,793. As of Tuesday, 62,793 people had recovered and been discharged from hospital.
Italy has imposed a nationwide quarantine to deal with the virus outbreak – leaving tourist sites such as Rome’s Spanish Steps empty (they are pictured today)
In Wuhan, 34,094 patients had been discharged from hospitals, but over half of them were still under observation at so-called ‘recovery stops’ – quarantine venues repurposed from hotels and student dormitories.
The provincial health authority said the post-discharge quarantine was a precautionary measure, after a few discharged patients tested positive again.
As of the end of Wednesday, the death toll in mainland China had reached 3,169, up by 11 from the previous day.
Hubei accounted for 10 of the new deaths, including seven in Wuhan.
China is now focusing on restarting factories and businesses hit by the containment policies, including the hard-hit airline industry.
Chinese airlines reported total losses of 20.96 billion yuan ($3billion) in February while the total number of airline passengers fell 84.5 per cent year-on-year.
Local governments must do their utmost to ensure people return to work as soon as possible, the official China Daily said in an editorial.
Many businesses are still facing labour shortages and supply-chain disruptions, it said.
‘The epidemic control measures have put an enormous strain on China’s enterprises, especially the small and medium-sized ones in the service sector,’ it said.
‘Any further delay in their return to normal operations will entail widespread bankruptcies and job losses, which will threaten social stability.’